elisahp

BTC still on knife's edge

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
BTC             - after ploughing through two trendlines running from September (one with outliers, the other without), the price bounced nicely off a strong support area incorporating a new downward trend line (ACE), previous resistance turned support around 8200, the 38.2% pitchfork fib, and the 1.618% retracement fib.

The rally only made it to the pitchfork median and 9200 previous support before a retrace sent it back to the previous support level honoring the ACE down trend. We are now seeing a more well formed downward wedge ( bullish ) over the longer time period shown by the Elliot Wave (A-E) - it can be noted that the apex of the wedge coincides strongly with another previous resistance area (at 7500), and the next orange trendline running from mid July.

Prior movement says we should see a bounce to the top of the wedge - further we have a lot of resistance and volume at the 50% pitchfork line (which runs through D), therefore I think we may see a move to point 1 which hopefully will show enough of a breakout of the wedge to inspire buying. Similarly I would like to see a second bounce on the ACE trendline to confirm a falling wedge on the shorter timeframe from D which would also be considered bullish .

RSI on the four hour is showing divergence indicating a bounce and we are running at the bottom of the Bollinger bands , however the RSI is still pointing down, as is the MACD .

The double hit on 8210 and then 8200 after E is a good sign. However as I've always said, BTC             is heavily governed by news (lately mostly negative), so I consider all support lines pretty weak in the face of media and fundamentals. Let's hope we get a chance to see a bullish breakout soon!

Also of note is the wedge shown on the 1 day RSI and MACD - these can sometimes show breakout patterns prior to the price so it is worth monitoring for any change. Some bullish divergence can also be seen here on the MACD (pink line). Also on this timeframe we are hovering around the 231 EMA . Breaking through this resoundingly, along with the wedge would likely see us in a bear market.
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