1) We have a falling wedge forming and we're looking for the 5th touch with a strong volume breakout above the resistance lines I've plotted in this chart. In this scenario we could be seeing 17-19k BTC again. 2) We are signalling VFI divergence since the 7th of December. Additionally the monthly RSI is @ 99.42, the past two times RSI was @ 96 we retraced 76 and 86% respectively. If this is the case, we will be looking at a much lower BTC towards 8k over the coming weeks.
For scenario 1 to playout, we want to see a strong bounce off $13162 and to blast through the previous resistances. I have purchased at this zone, but I am ready to exit at a moments notice.
For scenario 2 to playout, we want to see a continuation decline below $13162, which should signal serious issues, and 8k BTC. Please see the chart below for the monthly RSI comparison, as it's an important part of this scenario.
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Important to note that the lower level of the falling wedge, does not have a decline, which is a feature of the traditional falling wedge. The support lines were too perfect to show any decline however. The fact we have 5 touches confirmed now is a strong indicator, we need volume to pick up and blast through the resistance levels listed, or this will be going lower, and it will indeed not be a falling wedge.
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Additionally,
We have more evidence of a further decline in the fact the 50 day MA has closed below on the daily, as many other traders are pointing out.
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Hourly MACD crossing rejected, I've sold my positions.
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D'oh, it's been accepted now, still in a wait and see for further action, am currently not re-buying.
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As promised, here is an update to our situation. We could be looking at a symmetrical triangle. Please see the picture for potential buy zones if a breakdown occurs.
Key Notes:
This can technically still break upwards, but if we combine the fact of all the negative indicators (VFI divergence, monthly RSI's, low volume, MA crosses, and general bad sentiment) I'd say the likelihood of a break downwards is much more likely.
Thanks for your insights! I'm thinking of selling some of my alts and prepare cash in case bears will take the price down to 8k. Now, dips below 13.2k are quickly bough out, do you think it's a positive sign?
ant187
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@Shmalick, We needed a hard bounce off 13162, we failed to break the first resistance, combine this with the fact we need a daily candle close above 50MA, it's not looking good for BTC and good chance we'll be going lower. I'm sure other support zones will catch, however trading right now is very risky.
Shmalick
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@ant187, we've had that hard bounce which I'm happy with. Let's see if we can slowly crawl towards 14.6k and then to the top of the triangle? Fancy updating your charts, I'm keen on seeing what you think. Cheers