I've waited a long time to publish this new analysis. The signals were too unclear. Therefore, I was patient until the picture clears more up. Now, a large number of indicators point the way to where the Bitcoin could go. I have based my current analysis on a number of assumptions and extrapolated them for the future. Especially in view of the 3rd halving in mid-2020, I believe that a quite possible long-term forecast can be made.
The key question is, have we already seen the highest price at the Bitcoin. Was 20,000 USD the ATH?
Many agrees: No, that was still the highest price. So if USD 20,000 wasn't the highest price, what is the highest limit that the Bitcoin will approach at some point?
This is where we should look at the Halvings...
The 1st Halving was in November 2012. After that the price increased extremely. Likewise it was so with the 2nd Halving in the middle of September 2016. Then the rally starts up to the current ATM of 20,000 USD.
Let's take this fact as a basis and look at the situation of the miners. Then a target of over USD 150,000 could be possible after the 3rd halving in May 2020.
My analysis is based on a logeritmic chart and the trendlines are also adjusted to the logeritmic course as elypses. Linear trend lines would distort the picture here.
The question is now. Where is the current low point of the Bitcoin?
Many see a low based on Fibo at perhaps near 3000 USD or 2000 USD. I don't see it that way. Bitcoin can become even cheaper. At about 5,800 USD the bottom could be. But that doesn't have to be any more. We may already have seen the lowest mark. On the basis of my technical analysis, we could expect a sideways movement in the coming months, with an interim high at the end of 2019.
After the 3rd halving we can then safely expect a strong rise again.
Until then, good profits can be made with swing trading due to the sideways movement.
So. Should I buy Bitcoins? And when? It's like gold right now. We can expect a correction on the stock markets, so where does it make sense to invest? I now hold my Bitcoins again and buy again and again at a good price.
Here the close-up view:
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Let's see what happens. Happy trading. :-)
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btcusd: chart close up ...
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btcusd (w): bottom!? look at the chart update.
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btcusd (w): chart update. if btc holds this value, this is the bottom. on the other hand, the next fibo line is at 4600.
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btcusd (w): weekly up date. we move around the fibo area at about 5.7k. the next fibo is below at 4.5k and above at 7.5k and then 12k. should we stabilize at this level, an upward trend is initiated.
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btcusd (d): next supports ... look at the chart update.
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btcusd (w): situation chart
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btcusd (w): situation still weak after support. update.
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btcusd (w): look at ema 300... chart update.
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btcusd (w): chart update. 200 ema reached. next support lines ahead...
Your theory is flawed at the basis (but not bad, but flawed) - if the bullruns happen at the halvings .. the next bullrun shouldn't not start until june 2020 (according to your chart here). Until then, unfortunately, we will be falling and going sideways. So.. your view is to opportunistic
BTCINVESTING
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@Je_Buurman, thank you for your advice. have a look at the last halving and the halving before. there we had slight upward movements until halving, which really started after halving. this fact depends on the situation of the miner and the difficulty. shortly before halving there was a little high. let's see how things are going this time, but there are a lot indicators that it will run similarly. we will see ... :-)
Je_Buurman
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@btcinvests, It sounded worse than it was meant. I could have also said it like this. -> If you would redraw your chart, anticipating a drop to 2000 upto end 2019 (doesn't mean it will go there) you would have to draw that last "cup'n handle" a bit deeper and it would look more realistic / less optimistic (just my opinion)
BTCINVESTING
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@Je_Buurman, yes. at the moment the bottom could be at around 3000-3500. ema300 is a strong support (green line in my last updated chart). :-)
BTCINVESTING
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@Je_Buurman, and if we break the resistance line, well see 5 first.
TracksuitTrader
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Bitstamp BTCUSD is a bit lower than other exchanges so the price is just below the trendline right now.
BTCINVESTING
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@TracksuitTrader, yes, right. that's why i have my long-term chart at bitstamp and the short-term chart at bitfinex. the values are adjusted accordingly. thanks for your comment. :-)