bernino
Long

BTCUSD Coiling - pop!? Big move - be careful

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
696 21 10
There are two options here; we are coiling and its either a symmetric triangle in which case odds are we will go down to 2635 or so, then break through upwards against the upper triangle wall which will send us up up and away to potentially 3000 and at least to 2780.

Thats the trade I'm doing here. My entry target is 2640 where we have really really big support from a Fib Ret plus multiple tops (now bottoms) and current bottoms.

BUT - we might be looking at at a wedge and then if we crash through the bottom at 2632, we are in a ton of trouble and we may be sent all the way down to retest 2520 or even as deep as 2400 or 2000.

I'm a little early in this deal but hey - I've put in my stop loss at 2610 and with an upside from 2640 up to 2780 I'm fine on my risk reward at 4.32.

Coiling up has so much energy in them that its crazy.

So, I'm ready to reverse and short because the upside on shorting if we break through the support is equally deep. Possibly deeper than the upside.

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BITFINEX:BTCUSD            
Kommentar: Im changing my entry to 2656 because that 2640 is an outlier
Kommentar: Here we go to get into the deal... I hope
Kommentar: Lets see if I can get in
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MACD swinging us down .. lets go
Kommentar: hmmm ... I think it will be at 2665 lets see... but its certainly vibrating a lot right now
Kommentar: I put my limit order at 2656 and it popped down and snapped me up, so I'm in this trade even though its a biiiiit early. Long with a stop loss at 2640. Lets see.... and heeeyyyy isn't that a something harmonic
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Kommentar: oh man... I should have trusted my analysis more and stuck with my 2640 entry point... ah well... lesson learned.
Kommentar: Probably something like that:
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? Bounce off 2632 please :D
Kommentar: I felt I was too early in this trade and so I did a limit sell to exit without losses...
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still - not pro to enter too early.

I want to be extremely disciplined and not enter until I see strong confirmation. I see better and better confirmation by the bounces off the 2632 support line and so I will pickup there
Kommentar: Back in the deal at 2632 still thats a nice 20 dollar points away from my bad timing. Now we will see if the deal of this trade is truly there over the next hours.
Kommentar: Ommmpffff stop loss
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Trade geschlossen: Stop wurde erreicht: My new position is the reverse down to 2520. Thats the beauty of trading, sure I made a small loss, cut it with my stop. Now on to the short down to 2520 opened at 2603. Risk reward ratio 7.4. Stop loss 2615.
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Kommentar: The 2594 support got broken:
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down down down
Kommentar: HAHA! Never say never!! Anyway - as you know I stop lossed once we broke down the 2632 range support with the double top and Fib Ret and knowing it isn't for sure if we are dealing with a triangle in the coiling system or a down wedge. So - in short - OUT... but now something's happening:
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If we consistently go above the support I'm gonna go back in this deal and trade long.

I had a long run this morning, did my meditation and understood the mistake I had done yesterday to simple be that I was in the deal too early. Always buy after strong signals have been given that your trade is right and pay the premium for being late is my approach.

I'm not gonna do the same mistake twice. Stick to strategy, confirm probabilities and that it makes sense with the indicator mix I use for spotting my trades. More on the system later as I'm proving it up.
Kommentar: Wait for it ;-) .. I want this confirmed
Kommentar: Look out for the butterfly - bat - other harmonics, they're pretty and full of energy!! We crossed over EMA on the 5,15,30 min chart. One hour is just about there but there could still be pull down as MACD / RSI are short term hot.

That said MACD 1hr is turning from negative and thats really really good news... standing by to open the position.

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Kommentar: One hour MACD:
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Kommentar: We are not go yet. It could swing back down to 2590 or lower and then use that confirmed bottom as a bounce to go high with a bit a help on the FOMO train. I hope. Coiling up. MACD is hot and downwards looking on the 5 min chart.

Ready to pull the trigger ... now its always a question if I will want to be 100% confirmed above the support line at 2632 or I dare to snap up a potentially good deal down at 2590. Well well... its a delta of 40 points so I might sit that one out

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Kommentar: Breath. Be patient. :D
Kommentar: Yeah - this deal is getting confirmed now.
Kommentar: There are still dragons and dungeons. This is still too early.
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Kommentar: ...at least we are on the north side of the support more or less... but still - a down wedge isnt the best option.
Trade ist aktiv: Im back in this deal as of 2638. Let's take the elevator up!

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Kommentar: This should make for another niiiiiiiice ride!!
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- wauw she's pissed lady BTC for having been pulled down. Like rrrrooooaaarrrr!
Kommentar: I LOVE IT when you're angry :
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:D :D :D
Kommentar: Pay attention - we gotta move up to 2715-2720 or we're in trouble.
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Kommentar: This is a very real risk right now:
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Im on with you, but right now Im going to university, let me know please! right there I dont have full internet connection but I can check email
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@KeisyC, I'll ping you when there's real danger ;-) ... right now we are just testing those short term old bottoms, but she's really pissed off so I'd say get out of an angry lady's way :D
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@KeisyC, heads up in about 50 dollar points. We are halfway there. Now for next hour we will see slow down and then pick up again.
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@KeisyC, heads up - 2700
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so go long now? Thanks!
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@sjesul, thats what I did since 2638 and a stop loss at 2620 plus an upside first at 2720-2790 and if we pull out of that whoa..! then we are aiming at 3000. I made alarms up at 2690 (last big top) and 2720. I might close out at 2720-ish and then reopen in order to reinvest my profit
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Looks like we go doooooown
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@bonnzer, yeah it was really a 50.50 situation to see who would rule the market... well, sellers won. I guess all the bad news from Ethereum was the big push that made it go pop!! ... at least I was right on being careful and that a big move would be coming.
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@bernino, you're cool, man! I always see, analyze and often follow your charts and tips, but today my five point gave me advice to short, so I'm bearish from 2690 :D
Big red candle of the last week makes me no sleep, so I decided to try that out.
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@bernino, but now... I don't know where a stop-line is ))
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