Halftime is over and here I am with the second part of my trading idea about the Goldman Sachs prediction (see my previous idea). What GS didn't tell us was in which way we were going to go down towards the 2k mark. And it looks like I did a good job at predicting Wave B, "the bounce", for the $3000 level. The only thing that doesn't look good on my previous chart is the time frame - on the other hand I never claimed to be able to predict when exactly something is going to happen. So this is what this new chart is for:
With the adjusted time frame we can see exactly what happened: After Wave A bottomed out at around $3000 the predicted Wave B unfolded in 3 major waves, two counter trend (up) and one with the trend (down). On my previous chart Wave B was shown to reach a high of ~$4000. It then reached a high of ~4120, which is good enough for me, since it had a potential to reach ~$4200. But it just wasn't strong enough to unfold its full potential. If you are still waiting for Wave B to go further up, you should probably stop waiting, because it seems to be clear now that Wave B is over. If you know something about Elliott Waves or have looked at my previous idea you will know that after Wave B comes Wave C. In a zigzag correction like this one, Wave C will probably go way past the bottom of Wave A, meaning that we might see Bitcoin go below $3000 very soon. Wave C has started slowly. For many it wasn't clear that we were going down at first, but now it's starting to become obvious. What I like about the start of this Wave C is that it's a good example to show that the market does not need to be fed bad news constantly in order to go down. The circumstances are the same under which the market moved from $3000 to over $4000 in Wave B, but now it's going down nonetheless. News don't move markets - markets decide whether to move based on news or not. And I am pretty sure that in the following days the market will take any news as an excuse to move further down. This Wave C will probably go down past $2500. The reversal zone shown on the chart should only be a rough reference. We should not be looking for an exact number, because the truth is that anything can happen. What I mean is: You don't want to miss out on the party waiting for $2200 while the market reverses at $2400. Personally I think that it won't be a bad idea if I buy Bitcoin anywhere between $2100 - $2400.
Conclusion: Wave B, the big move up, is most definitely over. Don't get caught in the little bounces that will come every now and then. According to this analysis the price is going down.
What is your strateji if we see 3000$ you buy some or you wait to drop nearly 2500$ ? what do you suggest ?
TALife
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@oymer007, $3000 is a really important level at which we will have to wait and see if it breaks through. It's difficult to tell right now, but since I am pretty bearish I don't think I will buy at that level. You can either buy and work with stop losses or just be patient and wait for it to go down more.
But I am sure that some people will just like to buy at $3000 because they are thinking long term.
AaronHughes
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@TALife, you have any sort of timeline in regards to when you think this may occur ? Also love your charts keep up the good work
sonersismanoglu
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@oymer007, i ordered one part at 3050$ and the other part at 2500$ for long term investment.
mikerob1963
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You Sir can be forgiven for this. Few Pro Traders saw this coming I thought a high of 5200. Keep it coming, nice work! As for all the trolls out there "people who don't make mistakes don't do anything"
Adamkm
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What I like about this graph is that it shows BTC does need negative news to keep going down to such large extents. It has managed to show the exact opposite.
"What I like about the start of this Wave C is that it's a good example to show that the market does not need to be fed bad news constantly in order to go down"
The TA suggested it should go down, there was no news to help it move downwards, no news to make it move upwards, instead it just broke free and moved naturally upwards like it keeps doing. All that has happened with this recent mess is prove how strong and resilient BTC actually is.
vassya506
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Hello, thank you for your analysis! If we go beyond 3920, then the next target is 4970, right??)
ehsan_3
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Great read on the charts. I second you, been following the waves for a while now.
MoonPickle
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@TALife, great analysis! What is your timeline for the completion of Wave C?