Where Are We at in Bitcoin's Wave Count?
I'm so freaking tired, I've been working on this for so long I'm going to sleep as soon as I post this. I'm keeping this one as short as I can.
WHERE WE ARE NOW:
Primary wave 4 of Cycle wave 3...
We are in the process of an extended 3rd cycle wave. Specifically, we are in a primary wave 4 consolidation of that cycle wave. Why was September thru November so crazy in terms of growth? Because that was the 3rd (primary) wave of wave of an extended (cycle) 3rd wave. The laws of elliot wave (wow).
WHERE ARE WE GOING?
Up...
I'm pretty damn sure we still have another 5th wave that takes us up to $30k in this next bull run, but I expect that to be just as slow as our primary wave 1 within this cycle wave 3. Could we get an extended 5th and our 3rd wave extend to $40k+?? Absolutely. But I'm not aiming to be that bullish just yet. All I know is that the overall trend is still up, and we have not yet done anything that will convince me otherwise. This is a normal, healthy correction. And as you can see, based off of history, this is NOTHING.
WHERE COULD BITCOIN GO IN THE NEXT 5-10 YEARS?
No idea...
So purely based on previous timelines, I expect this 5th wave to take us into 2019 before we see another massive correction. I mention on my previous post that this expanded irregular correction that we are currently on gives me hope that we may see something similar on our next cycle wave 4 correction. Similar events happened with the DOW Jones and it could very well happen with this one. I really want to see an expanded correction, because that is the difference between a multiyear bear market and a healthy alternation between bull vs bears in the course of that time. Pay attention to this zone that we are in, it's possible that this isn't the only time we'll be here.
Lots of the time, the C wave from an ABC correction will end at the bottom of wave 4, which is where we are at right now. So, there is the possibility that if you invest in Bitcoin now, and hold it for 3 years, you make nothing (It happened with some of those who entered the stock market 10 years before the great recession). I am NOT saying Bitcoin WILL correct for as long as the chart says in cycle wave 4, I'm just bringing it back to the logarithmic support line based on waves 1 and 2, for what is POSSIBLE.
Based off of percent changes and wave lengths it is possible that Bitcoin's 5th cycle wave could be from anywhere between $40k - $100k. Thats a really big freaking gap, but there is not enough information to make projections such as that. But I want to keep in mind that it REALLY is possible for Bitcoin to hit $90-100k in the next 5-10 years. The analysts that have predicted those numbers aren't just bullshitting you, there's actually some proof behind the pudding. But it's going to take some strong fundamental events to bring that together.
Now remember, these are ultra long-term projections, and they are not likely to follow this particular path, we should just use this as a guideline or a picture frame for what we could possibly see in the future. This post is mostly just for where we are now, and to show that there is still upside, as well as give the big picture look of Bitcoin and the market.
Also, I'm sorry to break the news, but NOTHING is unstoppable. Multi-year bear markets are inevitable, and there WILL be another time where Bitcoin does NOT see positive growth in 1 year or more. I 100% guarantee it and I'd bet any of you my whole portfolio on that FACT. So please, I don't want to hear someone say that something like that is not likely. That is my ultimate pet-peeve. BUT, at the same time, you should know that there are limits to growth and decline.
Anyways, I hope this helped! And I hope this is right! LOL. Good luck through this bi-polar market guys!
WHERE WE ARE NOW:
Primary wave 4 of Cycle wave 3...
We are in the process of an extended 3rd cycle wave. Specifically, we are in a primary wave 4 consolidation of that cycle wave. Why was September thru November so crazy in terms of growth? Because that was the 3rd (primary) wave of wave of an extended (cycle) 3rd wave. The laws of elliot wave (wow).
WHERE ARE WE GOING?
Up...
I'm pretty damn sure we still have another 5th wave that takes us up to $30k in this next bull run, but I expect that to be just as slow as our primary wave 1 within this cycle wave 3. Could we get an extended 5th and our 3rd wave extend to $40k+?? Absolutely. But I'm not aiming to be that bullish just yet. All I know is that the overall trend is still up, and we have not yet done anything that will convince me otherwise. This is a normal, healthy correction. And as you can see, based off of history, this is NOTHING.
WHERE COULD BITCOIN GO IN THE NEXT 5-10 YEARS?
No idea...
So purely based on previous timelines, I expect this 5th wave to take us into 2019 before we see another massive correction. I mention on my previous post that this expanded irregular correction that we are currently on gives me hope that we may see something similar on our next cycle wave 4 correction. Similar events happened with the DOW Jones and it could very well happen with this one. I really want to see an expanded correction, because that is the difference between a multiyear bear market and a healthy alternation between bull vs bears in the course of that time. Pay attention to this zone that we are in, it's possible that this isn't the only time we'll be here.
Lots of the time, the C wave from an ABC correction will end at the bottom of wave 4, which is where we are at right now. So, there is the possibility that if you invest in Bitcoin now, and hold it for 3 years, you make nothing (It happened with some of those who entered the stock market 10 years before the great recession). I am NOT saying Bitcoin WILL correct for as long as the chart says in cycle wave 4, I'm just bringing it back to the logarithmic support line based on waves 1 and 2, for what is POSSIBLE.
Based off of percent changes and wave lengths it is possible that Bitcoin's 5th cycle wave could be from anywhere between $40k - $100k. Thats a really big freaking gap, but there is not enough information to make projections such as that. But I want to keep in mind that it REALLY is possible for Bitcoin to hit $90-100k in the next 5-10 years. The analysts that have predicted those numbers aren't just bullshitting you, there's actually some proof behind the pudding. But it's going to take some strong fundamental events to bring that together.
Now remember, these are ultra long-term projections, and they are not likely to follow this particular path, we should just use this as a guideline or a picture frame for what we could possibly see in the future. This post is mostly just for where we are now, and to show that there is still upside, as well as give the big picture look of Bitcoin and the market.
Also, I'm sorry to break the news, but NOTHING is unstoppable. Multi-year bear markets are inevitable, and there WILL be another time where Bitcoin does NOT see positive growth in 1 year or more. I 100% guarantee it and I'd bet any of you my whole portfolio on that FACT. So please, I don't want to hear someone say that something like that is not likely. That is my ultimate pet-peeve. BUT, at the same time, you should know that there are limits to growth and decline.
Anyways, I hope this helped! And I hope this is right! LOL. Good luck through this bi-polar market guys!
Kommentar:
CORRECTION OVER???
Rule of Relativity! You guys see the similarities in these corrections??? I LOVE what I'm seeing guys. And I love it SO much, that I'm fully re-entering the market. 100% back in. My patience may have paid off.
Why?
1) I have found enough supporting claims that could show this to be the bottom of the correction.
2) EVEN if it goes a little lower, WHO CARES. $7,200 is a GREAT entry mark for something that you think is going to rebound to $30k in the future, along with other coins.
I may be jumping the gun too early here, so I don't advise to do the same. But I like my chances here, I like what I'm seeing, and I'm going to take this implied risk that it could go lower. But right now I'm just separating greed from patience, and combining smart analysis with intuition. It's about time.
CORRECTION OVER???
Rule of Relativity! You guys see the similarities in these corrections??? I LOVE what I'm seeing guys. And I love it SO much, that I'm fully re-entering the market. 100% back in. My patience may have paid off.
Why?
1) I have found enough supporting claims that could show this to be the bottom of the correction.
2) EVEN if it goes a little lower, WHO CARES. $7,200 is a GREAT entry mark for something that you think is going to rebound to $30k in the future, along with other coins.
I may be jumping the gun too early here, so I don't advise to do the same. But I like my chances here, I like what I'm seeing, and I'm going to take this implied risk that it could go lower. But right now I'm just separating greed from patience, and combining smart analysis with intuition. It's about time.
Guys, here is an awesome perspective of our minor corrections during this 3rd Cycle wave. During this 3rd primary wave, we have seen many many short-lived corrections that lasted a very short period of time. The average length of a major/minor correction since March 2017 has lasted around 28-30 days. Not very long. Why? Because wave 3 was a very very impulsive wave, one of the strongest waves you will ever see. When it's a 3rd wave within a 3rd wave, it get very powerful. Just imagine how fast we saw prices went up during the 3rd wave within that 3rd wave and so on. MIND BLOWING. I LOVE IT.
Anyways, we see that during our first primary impulse wave from August 2015 to March 2017, we move much slower and our correction times take a while longer. In the range of 56-76 days. We're in the time range right now! And its possible we finish this correction VERY soon (either today or in 2-3 weeks). Now why are we following wave 1 correction time-lengths?
1) If one wave is impulsive (3) then the other 2 waves (1 & 5) will act in similar fashions.
2) Guideline of alternation. Look at the percentage ranges for the wave 2 consolidation and wave 4 consolidation. Notice something? Wave 2 consolidates 30% in a bullish fashion leading to an impulsive wave 3, and wave 4 consolidation is around 64% in a bearish fashion leading to a slower wave 5 (that looks like wave 1).
Guys, this is so beautiful it makes me want to cry. Tears of Joy. I love doing this so much.
RSI:
Lets look at indicators! We notice that during correction periods of the primary wave 1 we have a bullish bounce on RSI of an equal or less price right before our next bull run. But during primary wave 3 we don't have that bullish bounce, we just snap up and continue our bullishness because of how strong the run is. Right now, we're back to a little more bearishness, so we may get that bullish RSI bounce that we've seen in wave 1.
Volume:
Volume has continued to increase through the length of this Bull run, and has just slightly decreased during this correctional phase. That is a VERY good sign. It means more people are holding on and weaker hands have moved from the market. I suggest you guys look up Dow Theory if you are unfamiliar.
Stoch RSI: On the daily chart, we notice that each time during these correctional phases, there are only 1-3 drops into the oversold area. We are already at #3, BUT, i think that in this scenario its possible that we don't break that sloping Stoch RSI resistance and fall back down for a 4th drop.
Support Line: Uhhhh, we're right at it!
Long story short, NOTHING I AM SEEING IS MAKING ME BEARISH ON THIS MARKET. LETS GOOOOOOOO BULLSSSSSSS. I'm about to buy a shit ton of Chicago Bulls gear because that's how I'm feeling right now.
BUT, lets remember, wave 1 took nearly a year and a half. It's possible that that length of time is similar to wave 5. So the gains will be slower. That 3rd of a 3rd wave will be the fastest you will see this market grow for a while. That was purely an insane period of time, and if you were in the market during that time and took profit, you're probably feeling good about yourself right now. Let's lead this market guys! Good luck!