vladutzzz
Long

Bullish Gartley showing price going to 16.5K

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
459 2 5
Bullish Gartley pattern will be validated if down trend will reverse around 8.7K (the yellow circle range around point D). The pattern is invalidated if price drops bellow the level of X.
If pattern is confirmed there is statistical probability of 97% that the price will go to the level of B, 64% chance of it reaching C and a 52% chance it will get at the level of A or above.
See how those percentages were calculated here: http://thepatternsite.com/GartleyBull.html
I will just say the study identified the pattern by studying daily price data from January 1990 to April 1, 2013 on the traditional stock market.
I would also like to point out that earlier, there was a Bearish Gartley that did play out (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/iIV9tyzi-BTC-Outlook-for-the-near-future/) which would suggest that Gartelys may yield good results on BTC             .
Trade ist aktiv: It looks like the 200 MMA is converging with the 0.786 retracement level and point D of the Bullish Gartley.
Another thing to notice is that if the above indicators align, and price does go around 8.2k $, the RSI will hit the 30 level which previously has preceded sharp bullish trend reversal (see third blue arrow from left to right).

Trade ist aktiv: We reached our target (point D in the diagram) to complete the Bullish Gartley pattern.
We are now waiting for trend reversal and the volume spikes to confirm it.
So far we are seeing heavy resistance across all exchanges at about 8.3K.

RSI seems to have touched the 30 level, which previously has proceeded strong bull runs for BTC.


Kommentar: Unfortunately if a strong bounce will not happen soon the pattern will be invalidated (if point D gets at the level of point X).

From the TA perspective the market is very unbalanced presently, but because of FUD and possible price manipulation we will keep dropping till somebody fills enough bags.
Trade ist aktiv: And we're back.

Strong bounce previously mentioned happened (local bottom) and seems to be strong. Target is around 16k.

I am expecting the price to bounce around quite a bit, and once the target is hit, it will probably drop again.

I see a great deal of volatility over the mid-term (1-2 months)

Trade ist aktiv: Bullish Gartley still progressing as expected, price is going up following the previously charted purple line. Expecting resistance at 10K, 11K and 14K but it will mostly trend up.

On the midterm I am expecting to see high volatility so price will be bouncing from here to around 15-16K then down to 10K then again up and so on. This would be a good time for swing trades.

There is a great possibility that the price will go down at some point again and stagnate for a while ...which will make transition from the "high volatility" stage to the "accumulation stage".

Trade ist aktiv: Continuing upward price trend. From the bullish Gartley perspective we've bounced back up to the level of point D, which happens in about 97% of such Gartley patterns.
There is now a (statistical) 64% chance of reaching point C level and a 52% chance it will get at the level of A or above. (more about that here http://thepatternsite.com/GartleyBull.html)

We're also testing the boundaries of the bear trend channel (green parallel lines) as well as a level where we had strong previous support which will now act as resistance (the level around 11.8k portrayed by the orange line).
We may see some small dips but I expect the 50 day EMA (around 11.5k) to act as support and not allow the price to drop to much after it hits the top.

Hey, @vladutzzz ! We are a tech savvy community from Romania and we are following your posts on DataDash for a while. Just want to say thank you for this very nice educational piece of work. A very well done TA. Impressive!
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Hi @i3uri, I appreciate the feedback and I'm glad you find my scribbles useful :)! Thanks.
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