Looks like a New Years Bull Rally. Maybe - Let's be cautious here. The further we go into a correction the better our idea of where we are in the cycle. Have we completed the cycle?
First we broke the $13,440 and $13,835 levels both important levels to break, but we hit head on our mid term trend line and we are currently consolidating. I added a small position here and will add another a break out of $14,000 level with a near term target of $1501.00 Will address the chart when we get there.
Keep in mind the following #1 I'm building a position, not all in. #2 we can reverse like we did the previous 4 times and head lower. #3 I only want to have a full position when it is very clear we are in a wave 3 and the RSI is over 60. Last fake break cost me a few bones so I'm gun shy here! #4 The further into a correction the better idea of important levels for us to look at. What interesting is how fibb levels start to line up with previous support and resistance levels helping us painT a better picture where a few days ago the picture was not as clear. The water is clearing up some here.
Bottom line we the recent sell off could have been for many reasons, people selling losses as they just entered the space and were facing realized losses, and decided to just exit the position to claim those losses vs other gains. The flip side of that is that people that bought earlier in the year could be waiting for the 1st of the year to sell their profits! So we can not factor out a retest of 11k. Now is $6,000 - $8,000 possible? Absolutely! Is it likely? I'm not sold, mainly because too many people are calling for $8000, and money is sitting waiting for it to get there! Buyers will be in way before that. I will. Heck I will be selling apple stock at that point and going long bitcoin! I'm joking do not take it seriously - nobody should sell Apple stock, but there are some I just might!
In closing the rest of the market is recovering nicely. So as Bitcoin picks up steam and people sell profits in alts I'll be looking to add to some solid positions. I will update some others later! I really like Ethereum here as well and have added to the long term. The last few corrections Bitcoin out performed the alts during the beginning of the recovery. I'm seeing if it happens here as well as history and markets often repeat the same behavior!
YOU ALL HAVE A SAFE WONDERFUL NEW YEAR'S! NEXT YEAR HAS A LOT IN STORE FOR US!!!!
Kommentar
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We may trade sideways for a couple weeks and there will be some volatility along the way. I still am not sold we see $8000 let alone $5000 but anything can happen, and I believe it will be so brief I already have orders in at both levels just in case. But I still think 11k is the lowest we go and I am just looking to add on any dip. Wall Street is just entering the market so I just do not see a huge correction yet! But here is my simple trend chart with the current trend lines and also some pullback levels as well as time of the correction.
Yes, everyone and their grandma seem to be waiting for it to drop to 8000 so they can pounce, which means it’s probably not going to happen unfortunately.
@goldbug1 thanks for the great info you give out. I am new to all this and trying to learn. I think I get most of your concepts but what are those indicators on top (ex. 25 bars, 25d). Also when doing elliot waves how do you estimate the length of them? Is it by the channels /trends that the chart is currently showing? Thanks
Stemi74
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Hi @goldbug1 .
I wish you a happy new year.
You are one of the most (if not the best) talented writers here so I will like to make you some questions that may you like to address in a future writing or at least want to briefly answer here. Since the burden may be high, please don't feel oblige to answer my questions.
Many people speak about the bubble burst of cryptos in the future. Retracements like the one that we experience now with bitcoin (40-50% down from the last ATH) don't make such events less likely? What do we mean with bubble burst in terms of a percentage drop? Do you think that we are close in time with such event? What strategies can we have to face such bursts? Can a bubble burst in another sector (e.g. US stocks) affect (in any way) the route of cryptos?
Thank you
adigad007
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The king is back
stephenz827
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I think a simple explanation may be in order....some people, and we are talking world wide ..sold off some profits to buy Christmas. I suspect a major push when springs creeps in. As in US gets tax relief, tax returns come in, and heating bills drop off.....