NeoButane

$BTC - 1W - Using Gann Fans from 2011 to 2018 for prediction

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I charted it out starting 2011, and it looks like ~$2,000 is our theoretical complete bottoming. It's also important to keep in mind that this would be a complete bottom, breaking every support it has on the way.

Parameters:
  • ATH is $19,188, according to the daily time interval. This does not count the wick.
  • Ascending Gann fan is at the first trough, placed at a 45 degree angle. $2.95
  • Descending Gann fan is at the ATH             , also placed at a 45 degree angle. $19,188,
  • The Fibonacci speed arc is drawn from ATH             to previous trough at $934.70. $19,188 to $934.70,

The cyan lines at trough and peak are Gann fans; the idea of Gann fans is that mathematics is the foundation of market valuation and that markets are cyclical in nature. Each line is a support or resistance, depending on where the value is located. 1/1 is the strongest at 45 degrees.

The ascending Gann fan is drawn from the very first trough at a 45 degree angle. The highlighted red rectangles are where the 1/1 Gann fan line rejects $BTC. $BTC falls right through the 2/1 line, meaning that 3/1 is our new support. It gets rejected at the ATH             , conveniently where the 2/1 is (how the hell did that line up so well).

The ascending 3/1 Gann fan line, 1/1 descending Gann fan line, and Fibonacci speed arc all converge at about $2,000. This provides strong support but is not an indication that we are headed to $2,000. It means that it is the lowest we can go.

To note: 4 months passed (1 Jul. 2013 to 25 Nov. 2013) in between the MtGox bubble and the trough before it. $BTC saw approx. 1000% increase in value from ~$79. From the MtGox ATH             , it took about 11 months to hit 38.20% retracement and stay under. It then took three years to get back to MtGox peak price, about $974.

From then, around the start of 2017, we've been on a bull run. Measuring nearly every trough to peak on the 1D chart in 2017, we have never hit lower than 78.6% retracement . It took 5 months to go from ~$1,000 (around the largest trough previous to our ATH             ) to ~19,000, approx. 1800% increase. This time, we hit 38.20% retracement in about 2 months. A ~1000% increase to $19,188 took about seven months.

If I were to believe that markets are cyclical in nature, I can take the amount of time it took to reach 38.20% retracement levels during MtGox/2013 and extrapolate the amount of time it will take to recover from a severe dip. If it took 11 months to hit 38.2% and 37 months to reach the same high, a ratio of 2 months means it will take about 6-7 months to reach ~$19,000 again.

I can also use my head and realize it's bonkers to predict a price point based solely on 45 degree angles and one theory.

Here's BTC             plotted with a Fibonacci time zone.
https://i.imgur.com/3gerW4s.png
Kommentar:
Picture in case Gann fans break.
great chart man, thanx
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