BTC - The emerging continuation of the bears at play. $8,600?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Thank you all for welcoming my first analysis, although not in the real word, certainly a first at trading view. Before I describe my technical analysis , I would like to say that the level of standards are astronomically high on here (and well done to all); and it led me to this conclusion. Sometimes it can be very difficult for the reader to interpret those much needed charts with overlaid technical indicators, and trading and quantitative data analysis terminology to provide an evidence-base perspective to any given chart.

However, seeing as this is my first of many posts, I wanted to provide a chart that was more of a visual aid, which is very self-explanatory, with reference to a few technical words that are needed however; I have kept this brief.

The defining moments throughout my charting really come down to a few things, in which I constructed this chart:

- Three trend lines , ranging from green, orange and red which represent their purpose on the chart. The way in which I ascertain and plot trend lines , is by looking for precipitating trends that show a continued correlation.

-Fibonacci retractment to identify and observe price dynamics, and oscillations; particularly in the 0.618 and 0.236 level. Please, please, please familiarize yourself with the Fibonacci golden ratio as it can really help to inform future plotting - (1.618)

-Finally, two wedges , although I take a different approach in this instance. I have two wedges so to speak. One which is bullish , and one which is bearish . There is a cross-over point, and considering this is an hourly-candle chart, we will have a good hour of confirmation to see where the candle in 'no-mans land' takes us.

To keep this brief, short and concise.

I will let the visuals speak, with some annotations on the chart itself.

To conclude, I would not be surprised to potentially see a 'false' break out, however, I strongly believe we will continue to be bearish , and I do feel we could go under the $10,000k price region due to it being tested more than once which impacts its integrity to contiously hold up, with a potential fail down to $8,000 region.

Thank you for reading; safe trading.
Kommentar: As mentioned previously; the cross-over period, or, 'no-mans land', of where the two wedges representing both bullish and bearish overlap, have that one hourly candle sitting perfectly on the two cross-overs.

As said, we like to have a period of confirmation, usually two candles, maybe more, dependent upon the duration of any given trend, or sideways consolidation. I strongly believe after this hourly candle is finished, we will have a good indication of where we go, we one more completed candle to rule out any false movements.

Either way, I am strongly expecting the candles to start trending down to the bearish side based upon an array or technical indicators and other styles of charting.

Good luck
Kommentar: So, we have 20 minutes give or take until this hourly candle finishes. I understand this may be currently hard to see on my chart, and the reasoning for this is because it is currently a doji, fluctuating between both green and red.

NOTE: I will contrast better next time I use this style of analysis.

The most important bit:
Generally speaking, there are many type of dojis, however, so as to not add complexity, which would not be unneeded at present as we wont see long wicks due to relatively low volatility. But in simple terms, a doji is indicative of indecision in the market with an equal open and close price. And guess what?! The doji is formulating right on my cross-over period, so i will really be using this as a sign of direction. Remember, once this candle is done, wait for another candle to complete to validate short-term movement.

Please remember the importance of a doji's positioning and its meaning, in relation not only to a particular trend, but also, due to fundamentals we need to consider.

To mention one: CME futures expiration.

15 minutes from now, we should be more informed
Kommentar: As promised; the previous hourly candle closed on a price lower than the previous, with the body laying on the bottom of the wick, usually indicating downward pressure, or, bearish continuation.

Also, if we look at the current hour candle, it is following my bearish trend line precisely. Now, this does not mean it will follow the line fully, as many variables such as time frame, and each candles body in relation to buy and sell will inform this.

However; I hope I have provided you a solid 2 hours overview, and walk through of my TA, how i identified the approach to utilize, in accordance with the correct trend lines, fib levels and support and resistance as influenced by that magical Fibonacci level.
Kommentar: Hello, and good morning!

It was good to see the trending follow my arrow after a period of four hours of a downward trend to reverse back up to my trending my arow (which is why i re-iterated the importance of waiting for 2 candle confirmations, as this would have informed your trade) and low and behold we then saw a 7 hour bearish period, with the last candle being a doji, and the current candle still in progress.

When this hourly candle completes, wait for another hourly candle, assess your position, then act upon the following hourly candle to validate fully what position will be beneficial, although I stated I was short on this, and indeed, i shorted my position in that 'no mans land zone'.

As said, we need to understand the importance of fib level 0.618 as we kissed that resistance level we have been bouncing down from, and suffice to say, that is what precipitated this current bearish trend.

The next question is, will my green support line that we have continuously bounced off, hold up? I have concerns it may not, due to the gradual erosion of its ability to hold up, as each time it is touched, it is weakened so to speak.

Keep watching for updates!

Safe trading.

NOTE: CME futures expired - However, many are under the impression that this will have a substantial impact upon pricing, but if you go to the CME website, you will see the volume of futures are really quite low, that they could not impact upon any significant drop, and more than likely, it is mass people selling due to fear.

Always trade with rationality.

Once again, good luck
Kommentar: Regarding CME futures expiration, it will be happening today (26th), however, the time in which it occurs will be dependent upon your time Zone.
@matthewscarpellino, are you sure that the CME futures have expired already? Isn't the expiry only at 16h London time today?
cryptodisciples BrettduPreez
@BrettduPreez, Yes sir, you ARE correct; I referred to it in a generalized time frame context due to continent time zones. But i will edit so as to avoid lack of clarity. Thank you
BrettduPreez cryptodisciples
@matthewscarpellino, okay, thank you so much. Do you think that we could have another drop in the next two hours (in that time frame the futures expire)? It seems that bear flag is forming now on 1h chart?
cryptodisciples BrettduPreez
@BrettduPreez, you are most welcome.

So, subjectively; I still believe it will be bearish and re-test that support line, and fall through based upon analysis thus far, and trend analysis over the last 2 weeks.


Objectively; when using a fundamental approach, there is an increasing chance that, yes, we may go bearish to the support line, but then rebound up to re-test and potentially break through failed levels of resistance. Especially when we consider recent news over the cessation of bitcoin trading, only for it to be found to be untrue, among other highly influential pieces of news that have impacted upon bitcoin.

So to conclude, the next 2-4 hours will give me a window of vague clarity on movement, followed by two hourly candles to confirm my prediction. Overall, I still remain bearish however, as we know, price movement and analysis is out-of-date from the time it's posted as anything could occur after I post this that may impact the trend.
BrettduPreez cryptodisciples
@matthewscarpellino, Thank you, I will be waiting for your updates. I realised now that it is still more than 2 hours before 16H London. So we have three more candles on the 1h chart to provide us with info!
cryptodisciples BrettduPreez
@BrettduPreez, You are welcome. I will continue to update this chart however; bitcoin has been quite unpredictable of late, even throwing off some of the world's top analysts, which is I why i am being very cautious with bitcoin and what I openly discuss in relation to my analysis

Good luck and thank you
Thank you!
cryptodisciples BrettduPreez
@BrettduPreez, You are most welcome.
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