ronfkingswanson
Long

5-day forecast: sunny, rising above clouds, with a high of 15K

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
CME bitcoin futures             termination of trading happens Friday (last of the month) at 4pm London time. We've got about 24 hours. The previous CBOE             expiration was preceded by a massive selloff right up to the end (mid-january) -- and then a big rebound rally. So for those expecting another heavy dump, why are we consolidating on support? If there was going to be carnage, it should be happening already, not post-expiry. Instead, we're pressed up against the triangle top, waiting to launch...

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_contract_specifications.html

We're settled on top of the 11,150 major S/R. Market has been sitting on its hands for days waiting for this date to arrive, bouncing around inside triangles, just killing time. See my other "fractal road" chart for a different view of the same scenario. Neither bulls nor bears have been willing to make a move before the expiry date, so price action has been boring as hell...

Yes, I used a 5-wave             path to show the impulse. I find it useful to map out possible pullbacks. No, I am not an Elliot Wave guy. Don't expect me to debate the subjective nuances of wave counts :P

The cloud has provided resistance since the recent rebound high of 13K             , and we hugged the underside perfectly. I've posted this same path curving underneath the cloud as an update on my other recent charts. Now we should come up from below and penetrate for a clear-sky rocket trajectory to 14,600-15,000 max. And look at the retrace fib waiting for us up there at the intersection: the juicy 0.705 "OTE" zone, where happy orders go to get filled ;)

If my charts are helpful, and they result in profit for you, tips are most welcome, and encourage me to keep posting these updates for free ;) PM for crypto addresses
Kommentar: looks like we had yet another round of suspect asian exchange FUD news dropped EXACTLY at the moment we were breaching the triangle top. CoinCheck heist news wasn't even about bitcoin, just withdrawals stopped (NEM coin??)

That's how you pour fuel on a panic move you want to happen (and already have a decent TA reason for, like filling out the triangle a little longer waiting for futures)

In any case, we just dropped right to the bottom of the pattern, how convenient :P Triangle is still intact, weak hands were thoroughly shook, and smart traders were given a second cheap entry at 10,400 ;)
Trade ist aktiv: Forecast high might need to be pulled down a bit, because the longer we take to kickoff the rally, the further down the trendline we intersect. Maybe tops out at 14,600 from here...
Trade ist aktiv: New 4H candle just printed, solid breakout finally (after three attempts) -- we have cleared the triangle top and the loooong downtrend line since 17.2K. The cloud we've been hugging on the underside for so long is now being penetrated. We've been sideways consolidating in this triangle for so long, with bears and bulls arguing endlessly -- this breakout (and getting above the bearish cloud) should bring some clarity and strong impulse energy to the market. Time to put on the sunscreen :)
Trade ist aktiv: We had out bear trend breakout (finally), but hit our heads inside the fat bear cloud. So it made sense to pull back one more time and retest both the bottom triangle floor and the bear line we just breached. In that precise intersection - $10,800 we just touched down.

So the sunny forecast has been delayed a few days, and the high temperature is down a little to 14K, but the good news is there's a longer-term chance of resolving this long triangle and breaking up into the 17+ zone! No heavy clouds up there, you'll want some sunscreen :)

Also - we have a nice little narrow spot in the cloud to pass through now...
Order storniert: Sunny trip to the northern beach cancelled due to heavy clouds :P Sorry kids, back on the bus, we're heading for the old gloomy 8K target again
Do you think we'll get back about 9.7k before heading down? The market looks too weak to me...but then i'm quite good at calling price targets but hopeless on plotting out the journey towards them and i always expect the market to move faster than it does! :-)
+2 Antworten
Commodore3 tigerpause
@tigerpause, We're on the same boat bro
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tigerpause Commodore3
@Commodore3 always good to have crew mates - figured i was alone on this tub for a while there :-)
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@ronfkingswanson IL TUO SILENZIO MI UCCIDE , QUI TI SEGUIAMO TI PREGO AGGIORNACI
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@Zara84, Looks like a bear flag from the 3rd point on the failed EW, target is 7k, but it will fail too. FUD FUD'd up the breakout. Next one should be good.
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Zara84 Mikelikescrypto
@Mikelikescrypto, quindi 9300 prossimo punto di partenza
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Thanks, great job!
+4 Antworten
update please
+3 Antworten
You said bear trend breakout? :) I see we're moving in descending channel...
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