If we calculate the total move as a macro wave 3, starting from the bottom of the Mt gox collapse, 140ish on Coinbase, to 20K, we can find the fib retracement levels of this entire Wave 3.
because we are now assuming wave 3 is done and wave 4 is in place AND this is a macro wave 4, we have many more weeks of bear activity.
Considering a macro wave 4, it would make sense that we have 5 elliott waves down. It appears we are in wave 3 of 4 downwwards and 7.5k is the target.
We will bounce up again for wave 4 of 4. whether we get to the resistance line, i dont know. The fact that we didn't this time makes me think this will be the final bull trap before wave 5 of 4 down.
We can see that the .786 fib of the ENTIRE wave 3 from 2016-2017 provides the PERFECT bounce point for a gentle upwards trendline that will keep btc bullish long term.
(keep in mind this wave 4 can drop as far as $1300 and be above the macro wave 1 before the Mt gox collapse and still be bullish. Not excited about that though...)
I think taking the waves back to Mt. Gox collapse is too far back in crypto land. I see what you're trying to show here but I don't think an asset as immature as BTC allows that case to fit. I could be wrong but I think it's a bit of a stretch.
whoisthelorax
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slightly differen fib retracements if you start the macro wave 3 at $891 (when we dumped hard at ETFs not going through about 12 months ago)
not enough to change much. inch your buy orders up a bit.
JaiHanumant
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if buyers too lucky they will see .618..BTC would not go less than 8000 USD I feel :)
whoisthelorax
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the .618 and .786 targets look too good to be true in terms of trend line support.