The price has moved and impressive 340% on the EW 3 since the end of November and the time for a correction is fast approaching. The fibonacci extension does have more room to go to 50k but with an excessive MACD way higher than 2017 and also a very high RSI, such a push may seem improbable. If history repeats itself in every bull market BTC has always used the 21 EMEA on the weekly chart as the base. Therefore we may see a price retracement of 35% - 40% around the $20 $ - 21$ region. Many will scream and shout that is not possible as we will never even see 25K ever again but whatever goes up must come down and corrections are healthy in such a market where the price seems to have gone up parabolic. The market sentiment is also very bullish and the Fear and Greed index is at 93 indicating extreem Greed which usually is a strong signal that a correction is close. alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
I will place some buy orders around the target area as I will then expect a continuation of the bull trend with the last EW5 from April-May onwards.
Good luck
Kommentar
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We have now formed the two clear waves out of the ABC correction expected. With the EW C usually formed out of a 5 wave move we are on the fourth corrective one. Once the 5th wave will reach our initial target of $22 - 23K will expect a very quick buy from it.
Kommentar
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Here the current view on where we are on the current idea. The 42K levels have been rejected and currently we may have just finished the wave B has now completed too.
@Karzon, If you're looking from the September lows you're currently around 337% up. If you'll be taking the March lows that over 1000%.
cbistriceanu
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A quick update.
As expected BTC had started the decent towards the weekly 21EMA which, historically is the base of the bull market, looking to complete the C wave. Yesterday's drop was substantial so a decent bounce was expected. Day traders who had the guts to buy the dip at the 28k level are now sitting on very good profits but they should not rest easily and tread carefully. The 28k zone was meant to be a good support, especially with so much bullish buyers in the market. That zone is the where the 50 EMA on the daily chart is and with the current bounce going all the up to the 21 MA we should only be more optimistic about this correction being over if the latter level becomes support and not resistance. If the price will break the 35k area and then manages to hold that support for a few days, then we could take a chance/punt and buy more. It is still risky though, because we could see a "false break-out". For now, I will still be patient to see the price reaching the $22 -24k area as to me, that is the area of where very significant buying will push BTC over the 50k mark.
Good luck and always assess your risk reward ratio.
btcdigital
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@cbistriceanu hi, do u think this analysis is still valid? As we are seeing a new wave going up 4k in hours up to 34 k. Possible that it will break up 34k?
cbistriceanu
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@btcdigital, Hi and thanks for asking. With all the current craze going on the market and wallstreetbets, the completion of wave 5 may have just been invalidated. The price currently sits above the 21MA on the daily and that is a bullish sign. I will update the idea a bit later in the day as I am curios to see where things are going at the moment. Even if the price will not drop as predicted to the $22-24k levels, I think we will still have some time for the price to consolidate around the current range. As always, TA does not represent guarantees but only guidance to what we may see in the market. As a trader you always have to adapt to the market conditions and re-adjust.
btcdigital
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hi.what do u think of current breakout? will it break 42k or it will rebound?
cbistriceanu
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@btcdigital, Hey there, as we have now seen the 42K level has been rejected and with a Wave B usually called a false rally, here is what we should see following. So yes, my initial idea still stands atm.
Here is a quick update on the current price action.
BTC has started the correction, dragging the rest of the crypto market with it. So far the correction has only been a mere 27.9% but I would expect to see further downward pressure. The first corrective wave A is usually shallow, and it is usually followed by an up B wave creating the impression the price will recover. The last EW C is usually deeper as on the lower time frames that is formed by a 5 wave corrective move. As the market sentiment is still very bullish the last corrective wave C will be bought pretty fast. Therefore, the buy order should be placed around $21800 - $22800 mark. Time wise, I am not yet sure how things will unfold but once we have a confirmation of the wave A and B to be completed, we could make a more informed decisions. In a similar stage back in 2017 the correction took about 5 weeks to complete but it is possible to only have 2-3 weeks this time as everything in this cycle seems to be accelerating. Good luck!
btcdigital
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@cbistriceanu So regarding your analysis & as BTC/USD is around 35k the pattern is 99% going down directly to 22k?