BMoom
Short

BTC Giant Rising Wedge?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I'm not saying this will happen, but... that looks like a giant rising wedge , my TD             indicator for the weekly chart never went bullish , that yellow line above is a trend line we've been under for years and I don't think we will take it easily, lastly we usually touch to the top of the previous channel when creating a new one. Just something to keep an eye on.

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Lets try that one for size.
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Closer up with less stuff.
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Out of wedge. Hit support.
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Descending 1hr TD 9 count failed to reverse and break trend line.... Shh, quiet... was that a bear?
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Supports continue to break. Death cross looking likely on 1hr chart.
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The longer we stay under 200MA the more likely we will go down further. Will need a rally to break trend line off this descending TD 9 1hr to go up. I'm still thinking lower.
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We broke through trend line, but not in a significant way. At a support now and RSI is over sold, so maybe a small bounce, but Death Cross on 1hr coming. I still think we are going lower. Coinbase will go live (again) with BCH in about 1hr 15min... almost like they are timing this stuff...
Kommentar: I realized I haven't given you guys an update. I've been busy with life and researching another coin that I'm becoming very interested in. Honestly, I'm a bit sick of the two Bitcoin camps and long term both both have problems.

The chart: We got our Death Cross on the 1hr chart, 50MA on 1h acted as resistance and we saw three descending peaks. Things are still looking bearish. Maybe a bounce here, but should be short lived.



For now, I'm sticking to the $11,800 - $11,000 support. The arrow in the first picture does not take time in to consideration. What I would like to see is a bounce right where this green arrow points at the intersection of our old channel and what I believe may be our new one. If this happens, next year looks bullish. If we dive back in to the old channel, we may be forming a bearish channel and I will need to get to work charting it.... and talking about the coin I'm researching as a better alternative.

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So here is the deal. We hit right in to the the buy zone and bounced on the major support, but we did it a little faster than I wanted to see... I hope I had nothing to do with that. What I want to see is us touch the bottom of the new channel I drew. It may be possible the channel is a bit tighter, but I haven't charted it yet to confirm. We did get a good solid bounce off the major support.
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I want to see if we can bust through that 50MA. It's acted as resistance and I suspect it will again. Things will be looking better if we can get above 50MA. So for now I'm not ready to say we are out of the weeds yet. I still haven't gotten a chance to chart a channel using this bounce. If I find one, I'll post it.
Kommentar: I want to show you guys what I am looking for. I'd like to see us touch that purple line. I was hoping this drop would have been a little more drawn out so we would of hit todays low around the 4th or 5th of Jan. The problem is, if we go back up then drop down and hit todays low again on the 4th or 5th we now have a double bottom (= not good). So instead, I'd like to see us bottom out around $10k on Christmas, plus or minus ~one day. We would have to break below the 200MA on the daily chart for that to happen, so I am not sure how likely it is, but still I would like to see it.

A few things to watch for: If the price recovers and we are able to bust through the 50MA on the 1hr chart, over $15k, in the next ~2-6hrs then things will be looking a bit better, but still not out of the woods. If we drop down again, watch very closely to the 200MA on the 1D chart.



Kommentar: I haven't been able to do an update... too much last minute Christmas shopping to do. I've seen a number of people saying we are bullish now... If we do not break through that yellow line above, we are not bullish. The daily chart has merely taken a break as we stand right now. If we blast through that yellow line we will be looking better, but as of right now going down to $10k is as likely as being bullish. If you didn't get back in in the buy zone between $11.8 - 11, then I wouldn't do it now. Wait until the daily chart shows signs of reversal and not just resting.

Kommentar: So looks like 50MA is holding us up for now, but could be be breaking down as I'm typing this. I've put a target buy zone in for $10.2 - 9750. This comes with a caveat. Technically we sill need to hit the $8k support. I've only eyeballed it, but it looks like there may be a wider bull channel for moving forward using the $8k low. When I get a chance, I will chart it and show you the zoomed out view.

Kommentar: Sorry about all of the stuff on the screen. Hope it isn't too cluttered to see. I can't stay up any longer to watch, but we've been sitting in this cloud the last few hours. We likely have a descending TD 9 coming up in about 1.5hrs. From there we could rally. The chart looks like it could be making a reversal pattern. I'd like to see us break the blue trend line I drew above. If we fail to break it then we're likely headed back down.

Quick disclosure, I'm not as confidant with this $10k buy zone if we head back down. Looking more closely at, it doesn't look as strong. Not like the $8k support. I will not be putting any limit orders in for this area and will only trade it if I'm watching.

Kommentar: I don't have much time. Doing Christmas stuff with the family, but just wanted to show you what I am keeping an eye on. Happy Holidays!



Yellow trend line and blue trend line.



If blue breaks down, then watching 200MA and both yellow trend line.
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We broke out. That green line would have been a great entry, but I was asleep so missed it. We broke above 200MA. Right now things need to cool off, so I'll be looking for a possible dip then long. Will need to work on my channel, if things don't break down.
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Just wanted to give you a quick update. Because I missed the break out while I slept, I still have not gotten back in. I will feel better if we get above that blue line. There are still see some red flags so I am not fully conformable.

I asked a few people not in crypto who were begging me to help them get in when we were at the top if they were ready to get in now and those people all seemed to think the price will keep going down, so no point getting in right now... That would be one thing, maybe that group buys the top and misses the bottom every time, but Bitcoin Google search term is also trending down, so I makes me think this could be a wider sentiment... Additionally, the TD indicator for the monthly chart suggest January, February or as late as March, depending, could be a down month. Just a few things to keep an eye on.
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If 200MA breaks and we stay below it long enough to get a death cross on the 4hr charts $10k and $8k are in play. 4hr chart could have around 16 more hours of downside left in it.
Kommentar: The 50MA on the 1D chart is snaking right up that pink line, so also keep an eye on it.
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I know this is starting to look ridiculous with all of the lines, so I deleted some and added more stuff to the charts in the form of green X dots to show our three possible options. We hit the pink line, which 50MA on the 1D chart is still snaking up, and set it. Not what I want to see and there are too many bear signs, but could happen. We drop quick to the $10k and hit the green line, which was my original bottom channel line. We'd need to drop quick for it to work. Lastly we continue to drop over the next couple of days and find our $8k support on the purple line. The purple line is not anchored by anything other than the support line, so can slide up and down it to adjust for time.

Let's see what happens. Personally, I'm mostly focused on the purple line and $8k support.
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First one, check. I suspect a small rally then lower.
Kommentar: Just wanted to give you guys a quick update and share a project I've been looking in to.

So my other two targets are not possible/very unlikely. I am still not confident this is over, but the chart does look more positive.



Yesterday we had a breakout from the news Peter Thiel was/is invested in Bitcoin. Though from what I understand, he already invested and just said he had already made a lot of money. News like this will help, but Google trends for Bitcoin are still on the decline, so I am continuing to take a cautious approach. The chart still looks to me like it needs to dip again. The question is does it have a significant rally first or fake a rally, then dip?

Personally, I still think the purple line can be found.



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Kommentar: Possible bottom channel touched again. Will continue to watch for any sort of break down for a possible lower channel bottom. I'll need to spend a little more time looking at my other targets to see if they can still be hit without going in to a bear market at this point.



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Kommentar: Trend line that has held us up since 11/30 just broke.

Kommentar: USD Bitstamp


USDT Bittrex


Need a strong bounce here for a chance to reverse, but no looking likely.
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Back in to the old channel.
Kommentar: Just FYI. Wish I could tell you it's over, but double bottoms. I expect to continue down.
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.... Maybe. We bounced just shy ~$200 from my support, but within the zone. The MACD is about to crossover on the 1 week chart, so I'll be watching for how strong this rally is here. The chart still looks prime for hitting the next yellow line down right on the 200MA.
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Cleaned up for you guys.
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Descending TD9 on the 4hr. I expect to see a rally here. MACD looks read to attempt for a crossover.... Will watch for a rally, then another break down.
Kommentar: Sorry I haven't been updating. Life has gotten busy again. Just time for a quick one before bed.



Broke out and hit the top of the previous channel. I would be surprised if I wake up tomorrow morning and we've broken through the channel and 50SMA. RSI is over bought. I'm still sticking to the original target.

On a positive note Google trends for Bitcoin are picking back up. I'm thinking one more drop, then start working our way back up.
Kommentar: A lot of large shorts are being closed right now, but I am not sure why. Odd time of the night for a pump...
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So looking very likely we hit our target this coming week. I had two ideas in my head. One we go up as high as the red trend line at the top, then have three descending peaks and crash from there. I was hoping this did not happen because it could have enough momentum to take us much lower. The second option we go back up to the pennant and then back down.



You can see, the second option looks to be playing out and I hope to see a strong bounce around the second yellow line down.

What I do not want to see, is for us to bounce and not break through the red trend line at the top and start following this bear channel.



The Google trends for Bitcoin are continuing to pick up, so we know more observers are coming back and generally the more people watching the more people start jumping in.... Let's hope for the best.
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Back to our old friend.
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Possibly a descending wedge forming, so will watch for a break out or down. I still think we will drop down and hit 200MA in the red zone, then break out (up) from the wedge and hope we rally through the red channel line above to start a strong bull run for 2018.
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We did break through the yellow trend line, but not in a strong way and appears we are now rolling down the trend line now. The weekly chart still looks to have more down side to it. If we rally out of the pennant on the daily and can break above the channel top, then we will look more bullish. A quick note, I notice I must have accidentally moved the previous channel line and have moved it back to a general placement, but may need to fine tone it a bit. I am still expecting more downside and still have my orders in the red zone. Looks like by mid Feb we can hit the red zone and hopefully rally strong from there.
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Game time now... My order just got picked up. How about yours?
Kommentar: Closer up on 1hr chart.

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So breaking that yellow line again does have me nervous, but the channel line using the low did hold.... There may be a glimmer of hope. If the green line breaks I'll be bearish again and possibly for a while.
Kommentar: Zoomed out view.

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Held again.
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Broke down. I did exit.
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Bounce near the old channel support line... I don't have time now, but will play with that line to see if it can allow for some adjustment.
Lol doesn't seem like ever going to stop falling
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You will see something pretty cool soon @BMoom . Are you ready?
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@Acel, =) I'm ready! $100,000 BTC by summer? Whatdoya say?
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Acel BMoom
@BMoom, hmm i dont like round numbers! Also not good at predicting the future, i just follow the numbers, Im working on the numbers, i need more data! :)
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whay did you rush? just wait for $7,000 to be sure.
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BMoom alexstoica
@alexstoica, Because I'm not sure we will see $7,000. If we break the $7,500 support, I'll likely sell and target a new area around $5k. I put a limit order in at $7,635 around a month ago. Looks like I could have gone a little lower, but I was sleeping when it hit so I'll just write the $100 off a sleep tax. = )
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@BMoom, good call. you are right. i'll stick to the final target in the $5k.

something is smelling fishy right now. Also, last night and today, the bounce took place before hitting the support zone...like preparing to pass through easily when the time comes... think about it...
the support lines/zones - same story...

anyways, see you in the 5-6k.
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BMoom alexstoica
@alexstoica, Thanks. I made a published a chart for this buy zone and $5k a while back as well.
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Hi! I've been following this post since the start, would just like to know your thoughts heading forward if you've got time!
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BMoom tfreed23
@tfreed23, Thank you for following along. I'll do an update.
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