ecicic

BTC potential reversals and Market outlook

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Some of my followers have asked me why i haven't posted any trades in a while. The answer is simply because there is no trades that are attractive enough vs the risk. Sure a few coins are still going for all time highs, but the single most important characteristic a successful long term trader has is strong risk management and capital preservation. Right now baring a few exceptions the risk of the market retracing together with BTC             is too great. BTC             is still king for now, and when BTC             bleeds the market bleeds. In the short term we are clearly in a bear market and forcing trades leads to portfolio erosion.

There have been a few nice scalp opportunities due to over reaction of the herd(A, C wicks), in which i have profited nicely but they were just short term scalps and not for the inexperienced. Anyone with long term experience in this market knows it moves in cycles. Our failure to sustain an uptrend after the C wicks, mean that this is now a bear market and not a short term correction. We are quickly approaching the Hype Channel support line, followed by previous highs. At these points are opportune times to look for reversals but does not mean the market has to reverse here, just that the probability is greater. With Tether and regulation looming over the market it is wise to let the market play itself out before committing to a position. Even if we miss the first 25% of the new bull run, we will reduce risk and unnecessary losses.

This is a complex situation and my chart will seem messy, but shows the important support and resistance structures. This is to analyse all possibility and cross them out as they get invalidated, which will increase the probabilities of a successful trade. Check out my previous linked trades, where i called the top, start of correction and failed stop of correction, and scalp trades for context.
Kommentar:
snapshot


Hype Channel Broken
Kommentar: bottom is not in
Trade ist aktiv: Long at 7950
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht: closed at 8700.

snapshot


This satisfies C leg. market is likely to start a new uptrend, however the trend now is bear so i will not bet against the market. Ill let the market prove bears wrong, before resuming bullish attitude
Kommentar: Next support 6300 although weak
Kommentar:
snapshot


Another support broken. Very unlikely this is the bottom.
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