There have been a few nice scalp opportunities due to over reaction of the herd(A, C wicks), in which i have profited nicely but they were just short term scalps and not for the inexperienced. Anyone with long term experience in this market knows it moves in cycles. Our failure to sustain an uptrend after the C wicks, mean that this is now a bear market and not a short term correction. We are quickly approaching the Hype Channel support line, followed by previous highs. At these points are opportune times to look for reversals but does not mean the market has to reverse here, just that the probability is greater. With Tether and regulation looming over the market it is wise to let the market play itself out before committing to a position. Even if we miss the first 25% of the new bull run, we will reduce risk and unnecessary losses.
This is a complex situation and my chart will seem messy, but shows the important structures. This is to analyse all possibility and cross them out as they get invalidated, which will increase the probabilities of a successful trade. Check out my previous linked trades, where i called the top, start of correction and failed stop of correction, and scalp trades for context.
Hype Channel Broken
This satisfies C leg. market is likely to start a new uptrend, however the trend now is bear so i will not bet against the market. Ill let the market prove bears wrong, before resuming bullish attitude
Another support broken. Very unlikely this is the bottom.