BTC short term scenarii

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I expect orange the most, as alts continue to pillage btc's dominance. All the new money that got burned during the 20k->10k dip is finally realising even more money is to be made with alts, and every btc bull run is met with a "buy the dips!" on alts

This is also looking like a fractal of the 2700-> 1800$ scenario earlier in 2017
Kommentar: bad arrows drawings on my part, but both the alt bull run and 2700->1800$ scenario fractal is playing out, and all trendlines were efficient
1800 scenario


Expect a small recovery, and a new storm down to 10k in a V shape, small retracement to setup an inverted head and shoulder, then new bull run cycle for btc to last ATH
Kommentar: Getting close to bottom, and tomorrow Futures contract expire, so people will take profit

Target is still 8500 - 10 000$, but buying now and starting to build a position might not be a bad idea
Kommentar: Messages I wrote in my telegram group :

for me, Lightning is the next step
of course they buy btc at FUD around 3k, about china banning investments
Pump the hell out of it with good marketing and good old' Tethers
short it at 20k with futures
distribute their btc 20k -> 10k to supress everybody. Each has it's own refuge (XRP, NEO...)
cash in the Futures
"ban mining"
they buy back everything x4
release news such as "Russia will continue china's mining operation and bought it from them, with cheaper gas for electricity production"
"lightning network solves 99% of scalability issues of bitcoin, mining is not needed anymore" (or less, or suffisant)
and let's go for another riiiiiide!
triple whammy with an ETF launch by the WInklevoss etc"

Decreasing volume. Getting harder and harder to find sellers. Bottom is near, divergence all around, major targets reached, everybody saying btc is going to 6k, china ban (again?! I thought 2017 got us rid of that) news all over...

It's time to buy, guys, at least short term. 6k also possible if months bear market, but not in one go. Ooooh no
Kommentar: BTC rebounding exactly at my target area. Futures cashed-in. Enjoy the ride boys
Kommentar: Note : we touched (and extended to the target area) the moving averages, which means what we are going to see is a pullback. This means we will have opportunity to see profit, but it does NOT mean btc is going to moon 100k or 100millions.

It means that this is the target to keep bullish momentum without any psychological effect on the community, and a healthy correction. The strength of the rebound, and then continuation of bullishness will tell us if we will see higher highs, or some consolidating bear market (wave 3 ended or not)

If rebound is weak, and we go lower, it means we officially entered btc's bear market. If rebound is strong (and i expect it to be), we will see a "return to normal", and we will judge by then the next step, depending on market's decision and enthusiasm.

Stay frosty
Kommentar: Zoom in at the target buy area i posted. Bull's eyes, to the $

Now, we need to see market's reaction to this level, as it will give us clues on current momentum and targets.

Stay frosty
Kommentar: Current estimations

if bottom, expect fomo to 12300 and stabilize to 10k-11k, then high

if break 12300 and hit 13000, expect V bottom and retest ATH

if rebound down at the 11500 resistance and can't break it after two tries, expect a LOT more blood

If second try can't break it, run fast
Kommentar: For now, all is going well, except that the volume and momentum is lacking... Everything moves in slowmotion. Be careful...

Watch closely the price action around 10550

Kommentar: head & shoulder too slow for me, it is starting to look like a falling wedge. I'm out for now

If you continued the trade, we are closing on the resistance and halfway through the inverted H&S resistance

US Government close will have a huge impact on btc.

For comparison, here is what happened in 2013, at the last government closure under Obama

Kommentar: new idea for clarity
Kommentar: Congratulation, we closed at the right time at 12700 from our 9200 buy, and we could cover our position back, while keeping 39% profit in our pockets for re-investing in green days, in undervalued alts or simply to enjoy life.
BTC did enough correction to resume a bull, so we will just hold forever this position, even if we go down to hell, and continue enjoying the profits we made on this way up, and with swings. They are vastly bigger than if we held anyway, and our core position is intact, so mission accomplished !

BTC will come back to 20k and beyond one day (maybe in few weeks, maybe in few decades when it's a collectable), and even if we must go down to the ground first.
But if it does, I will wait for it there with my cash bag. And I hope that you will too. Now is neither the time to sell or buy, now is the time to watch !

Stay frosty, and remember, money is a mean, not an end !
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
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