This is nice structure for a wave-2, of wave-5, of Wave-3. Got it? Good. Sure, this "could" be a false break out and we'd retrace back to the $34 hundreds but a look at the length and structure of the larger degree wave-2 compared to wave-4 suggests that the 5th wave of 3 is not complete yet. Easier to see than to write ;)
A touch of the median line coincides with the 50% retracement for what I'm labeling wave-2 of 5 and gives more structure to the trade. The stop needs some room. If we start to go deeper than the 61.8% the $4,000 round number magnet effect may start to play a factor. My suggestion is a stop below the 78.6 to give it plenty of room. Up side is to targets to just under $5,000. Choose your size according to your risk tolerance and account size. If this count is invalidated and stops are hit... there will be a larger retracement on the daily you won't wont to miss because you burned your fingers on this play... My entry is just above the median line.
Hi, my first thing to say is I've been following you for a while and I greatly appreciate you sharing thoughtful your market views. So... thank you!
Next question: so you rule out the chance that it might be still in wave-4 of bigger wave-3 and developing an irregular correction, of which wave C that runs 138.2% of wave A will take us right to 38.2% level of previous wave-3 (of 3) and lower channel line around 3650?
Reason I'm saying that cause there's a divergence building up btw the last 2 peaks.
tradedevil
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@PhilHuynh, Hi there; thanks for the nice words... to your comments; Of course, the thing about E-wave analysis is that it's only a potential road map. It can change quickly. Sure it's possible to see the irregular correction. But then... it's labeled as irregular for a reason ;) I had the count as you're suggesting until we put in the new high in a 5 wave structure. That's what has me labeling this as wave-1 of 5. Where this pull back stops will be the next clue... the tag of the median line is a key piece to my premise. If we bounce on that... I add more to my position as it gives me more confidence that the count and the structure are aligned.
oaksacorn
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Spot on
mozartc
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Very complex explanation
BatteredTrader
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What a mess... can't read such over written charts
tradedevil
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@jaglion, Click the plus sign and open it up. Not that hard...
ulrich.wagener
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thanks @tradedevil, not a mess if you know what to look for..
gronndal
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Analysis trumps aesthetics ^_^
thetazeta
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@jaglion, if you don't know how to read it why are you wasting your time commenting? Read Frost and Prechter's Elliott Wave Principle, then come back and try again.
Next question: so you rule out the chance that it might be still in wave-4 of bigger wave-3 and developing an irregular correction, of which wave C that runs 138.2% of wave A will take us right to 38.2% level of previous wave-3 (of 3) and lower channel line around 3650?
Reason I'm saying that cause there's a divergence building up btw the last 2 peaks.