It seems like Bitcoin might take a tumble this month, perhaps caused by the fundamental events to take place during July, but in the longer term, a downtrend would be a buy opportunity if timed correctly.
In this chart, we can see the daily setup, which shows price can take a 26% hit; the 2 week chart, where we have observed the recent uptrend's progress, if analyzed from the 2015 low, which implies price will retrace significantly, since it has exhausted the upside it allowed for in this timeframe; and the 2 month chart, which helps us see the big picture trends in BTCUSD. Currently, the 2m chart target is 3372.99, which might sound crazy but is within the confines of possibility, without being overly optimistic.
I'm currently short, and waiting to cover and flip long once safe. Upside risk is likely 4-5%, and potential downside from here is 25%, so, this gives us a 5R profit if the trade evolves well. Once the short target is hit, we'll look to flip long, risking part of our profit to do so.
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Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
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Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Trade ist aktiv
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Nice drop so far, watch these levels.
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After this low volume rally, I'm standing aside for now, waiting for more clarity, to either short, or simply buy lower.
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It's possible this was a fake out, we're back below the mode here (most frequent price level in all transactions since the start of the downtrend)
Is this analysis still valid? I feel that bitcoin is due a large correction, but the price has been acting strangely this week. Going up on small volume. I think its a setup for a large bulltrap but how much higher will it go before it corrects, that is the questions.
IvanLabrie
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Yes, possibly a bull trap. I'm waiting, standing aside for now after being stopped out from my shorts, after moving the stop loss down.
BitcoinGuru
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careful another short squeeze in the works here imo. some mad stop hunting in Bitcoin.
MarshaIII
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darn is she slow moving...
but when she pops, she will burst. better not be on the wrong side o' this one
IvanLabrie
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Yes, there is a reason I use the 2 month and 2 week timeframe for BTC analysis...it's slow, too volatile and illiquid on lower timeframes. Big players make big moves, but not too often.