If we look at the past two years of
BTCUSD
on a log scale, we can see that Bitcoin consistently moved within a channel (yellow). It went from roughly 100 bucks in the beginning of 2015 to over 1500 bucks in May 2017. Even though this growth was ridiculous, it was steady and sustained, suggesting that at no point BTC was overvalued (or in a "bubble" as people like to call it).
Note that outbreaks and crashes never extended outside this yellow channel. (Kind of the definition of a channel I guess)
Then in May 2017 BTC crushed the resistance of that channel and rose to 3k. Following that we saw a crash down to 1760. That spot (marked with question mark) seemed quite arbitrary to me at the time it happened. But looking at the log chart it is bloody obvious.
I'm asking myself what a crazy state BTC is in right now. It could crash back down into the yellow channel (~2000), or continue to rise almost exponentially (on a log scale, lmao).
Anyway, fundamentally and in the long term I'm still bullish on BTC. Short term, not so much. Maybe this kind of behaviour is simply how mass adoption of a new currency looks.
Also noteworthy is the fact that at some point within the next two to three years the "global economy" is likely going to tank. Maybe not as bad as in 2008 (let's not be naive, probably 10x worse) but still bad enough to give BTC a bump. We shall see.
TL;DR: BTC is in limbo right now, maybe going to crash, but long term bullish. Also, BTC will profit in case of economic crisis. Basically nothing new.
BTCUSD
on a log scale, we can see that Bitcoin consistently moved within a channel (yellow). It went from roughly 100 bucks in the beginning of 2015 to over 1500 bucks in May 2017. Even though this growth was ridiculous, it was steady and sustained, suggesting that at no point BTC was overvalued (or in a "bubble" as people like to call it). Note that outbreaks and crashes never extended outside this yellow channel. (Kind of the definition of a channel I guess)
Then in May 2017 BTC crushed the resistance of that channel and rose to 3k. Following that we saw a crash down to 1760. That spot (marked with question mark) seemed quite arbitrary to me at the time it happened. But looking at the log chart it is bloody obvious.
I'm asking myself what a crazy state BTC is in right now. It could crash back down into the yellow channel (~2000), or continue to rise almost exponentially (on a log scale, lmao).
Anyway, fundamentally and in the long term I'm still bullish on BTC. Short term, not so much. Maybe this kind of behaviour is simply how mass adoption of a new currency looks.
Also noteworthy is the fact that at some point within the next two to three years the "global economy" is likely going to tank. Maybe not as bad as in 2008 (let's not be naive, probably 10x worse) but still bad enough to give BTC a bump. We shall see.
TL;DR: BTC is in limbo right now, maybe going to crash, but long term bullish. Also, BTC will profit in case of economic crisis. Basically nothing new.