Retest of the 200day EMA

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
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It is possible that the bounce from the last few days is actually a retest of the 200day EMA (see blue line). If this fails, this will confirm the reversal to a new low (expect 4500$ based on Fib levels). Keep in mind we are currently in an ascending wedge which is also considered bearish .

Day MACD looks like it will break to the bullish side. However, we see from previous weeks that it already did 2 fake breakout that resulted in massive bulltraps.

Once last thing to keep in mind that is not shown here is the possibility of a death cross (50day MA crossing the 200 MA). This may happen in the near future (weeks) and is a strong bearish signal.

I'm neutral for the moment
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