Bitcoin, bear or bounce?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
So I kinda had an idea, If you look at the first crash (green triangle1), the top of that crash turned support for the bounce of the following crash. If you look at the top of the red triangle1, it turned resistence for the run following the red triangle1 breakout ( marked with thick red line) This would be the worst case scenario, dont think we could go lower or even hit this but still... That line, can be used to form another triangle with a point at current all time high - red triangle 2. If you take a similar triangle then green triangle1 and put it on cca. 50 % of december runnup and make a fibonnaci retracement from the top of red trangle1 to the bottom of that wick on green triangle1, the 2.620 fib is lined up with the resistence around 2900 ( market with the blue circle).. that can be the second bounce zone.. the third one is at 4.236 fib level, which is also a key resistence point and is also the edge od the green triangle two, so to bounce back and preserve the bullish trend the yellow point would be optimal.. Anything bellow could lead to bear market.. Also, if you draw a fib retracement from the current ath and to the thick red line, 0.236 level is matching the resistence level/potential support level at 4800.
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