Since my last post, bitcoin dropped some more & now stays soundly below 200D MA, inside the downward channel, and way below the long-term upward channel.
In this context, it's very likely to continue its correction until demand increases. At the moment, volume comes primarily from shorts opening and closing, which is why we see some sharp rises that have no follow-up.
At this point, we're having some temporary support because the double-top target of 7.5k (which also is significant from prior price actions) has been reached briefly & ETH is seeking support at 200D + H&S neckline.
When BTC loses 7.5k & ETH loses 580, we'll see a gigantic crash. Especially for ETH, whose H&S target is IMHO at $270.
I see some people have mentioned the mining cost: The argument is that mining would be unprofitable & miners would all quit.
This is a flawed argument: If bitcoin is 1million / BTC, the cost will be ~1M because new mining rigs will be introduced. If bitcoin is 1/BTC, the cost will be ~$1 because MOST miners will quit but some will continue. It's a competitive business. At equilibrium the profit would be 0, but of course in the real world with price movements we're not going to reach an equilibrium.
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24h volume exceptionally low
whales pump & dump
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Indeed pnd. I think Sunday 6k is possible
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again at double top target of 7.5k and some minor support. but ETH's freshly-gained weakness should bring it down to the 6k target soon
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TBH, this market is more resilient than I thought. On fair balance, though, this is probably why it would keep going down:
Bulls get burnt repeatedly & at lower levels they get weaker & weaker.
A quickly drop & accumulation at the bottom would've saved this market. Instead, repeated p&d on the way down enriches the whales but screws small investors. Bounces get weaker & bear market persists.
IMHO, we're still just between denial & fear. There's not enough capitulation for the bottom. 3k is a real possibility. Short-term plays are very dangerous --- like they say, day-trading is a poor man's game.
As always nice work, i think 6k will be delayed by a week or two.... I do wish we coud get it all over with.... Thoughts on post crash patterns? been trying to go through the net to put a plan in place for the next twelve months.
DrJLT
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@nsearra, can't tell. I guess the real bottom could see a period of accumulation. How's your progress so far? any insights (can PM me)?