It was this hard, I believe, because many people suffered from long squeeze when their positions from the rally this week became untenable. I myself had to close half to deleverage and reduce risk exposure. I must admit that I was too greedy not to take profit after that much gain.
Needless to say, however, BCH is technically superior to BTC and enjoys some advantage by association compared to many alts. This ensures that the long-term value of BCH is relatively safe.
Considering this, I think a very likely scenarios would be that BCH consolidates before further gains. Why? Because this crash has spread enough FUD to depress the market. Many people have lots of paper gains from the rally that they may want to materialize. On the other hand, there's strong community support, and I believe the insane drops below $2000 were results of liquidation & stop losses positively feed back to each other. It doesn't mean the market believes a that level is legitimate.
On the chart, we can see that on 29 Oct the weekly crossed the monthly and another cross hasn't occurred. Therefore, BCH is still in the long-term. The price touched below the monthly three times between late Nov and early Dec and found support. The most likely scenario is that this time the support is solid.
I believe the mid-term (thick green) could provide some support, while the .618 level ($2950 circa) of the last rally some resistance. If this is confirmed, we may have an before the next breakout.
Nevertheless, there's systemic risk posed by bitcoin . It's currently unusable, and next week there'll be another fork coming. These are risks we must consider before deciding on a trade. I think it's better not to use margin at this point.
On the flip side, watch out if the daily EMA crosses the weekly EMA WHILE we break down the support.
As I'm increasingly convinced that BTC will keep falling, it's interesting to see whether bch will hold. If not, I may consider exiting. We'll know in two days.
Almost game over.
I think there's a good chance for btc to go back to its long-term channel (from which it deviated right where bch was forked). I just don't see how there could be enough capital to support that type of growth for something that size. If it were to go to 30+k in a few weeks, that would mean a company the size of Apple need to disappear. If it were to go to 1m, that would mean NYSE + Nasdaq all close down => that's how much money needed to keep pumping it. The big boys should know this (or they may be stupid & just by luck bought some btc @ $0.01).
That's why I've exited all but EOS & BCH. EOS because I think it should go to 0.05 ETH by mid 2018 regardless of the short-term trend. BCH because I think it's possible that while btc crashes bch could go up. Another coin I think could be safe is ETH. I was thinking about it two days ago but ultimately put in a low order to buy before going to bed. In the morning it had already gone up 15%.
The time to watch out for would be 28/12 when Segwit2x v2.0 gets forked. I'm almost certain it'll be a failure. This is likely to trigger a bitcoin crash.
in general i think 2018 will be the greatest year for cryptos. I am expecting at least 500% growth in market cap.
2 trillion dollars market cap.
of course, I can be wrong on all accounts.