AndyCharlotte

AUD/USD: prepare for RBA rate decision ( 3h30 GMT)

OANDA:AUDUSD   Australischer Dollar/U.S. Dollar
After hitting a high of 114.73 overnight, USD/JPY dropped 100 points to end the day in negative territory.

With no U.S. economic reports released today and relatively benign comments from Fed Presidents Williams and Dudley, yields are the only explanation for the dollar’s moves. On the basis of North Korean risks, profit taking and technicals, USD/JPY appears poised for a move down .

While there may not be much on the U.S. calendar, the Australian and New Zealand dollars will be in play this week with dual monetary policy announcements on the calendar. Between the two, the RBA rate decision should be less market moving than the RBNZ because the Australians have maintained a neutral policy stance for many months and is expected to continue to do so.

Although retail sales stabilized after falling in September, zero growth in demand means spending is weak. Labor market activity and the annualized pace of inflation has also deteriorated on the back of softer manufacturing, service and construction sector activity, giving the RBA very little reason to alter their bias. The good news is that consumer and business confidence is up and the currency is down. But In the context of rising U.S. rates, the RBA doesn’t need to be all that cautious for AUD/USD to fall yet given how much it has declined over the past 2 months , a tinge of optimism would send AUD/USD towards higher quickly.

Kommentar: check calendar https://www.investing.com/economic-calen...

sorry, this event will happen at 3h30 GMT ( next to 2h)
Kommentar: The Australian dollar has appreciated since mid year, partly reflecting a lower US dollar. The higher exchange rate is expected to contribute to continued subdued price pressures in the economy. It is also weighing on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast

Details: http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/201...
Kommentar:
Kommentar: The strength of USD push AU fall in low area. We'll wait when the low area is broke
Kommentar: touch low areas then move up to high
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