AUD/USD Long (short pullback)

FX:AUDUSD   Australischer Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Over the passed week AUD/USD has been in a relatively strong down trend (similar to most of the dollar related major pairs). I feel that it would be unwise to go against this strong trend however there is some evidence suggesting that there may be a small pull back on the cards for next week. Price action on the smaller times frames are showing signs of momentum loss, with the formation of bullish divergences forming on the hourly and 4 hour charts RSIs. This could be a potential reversal point but due to the strong bear trend it would be very risky to enter into a long position to try and capture a move to the upside. This strong downtrend could just be a correction wave of the previous bull trend, which once broken out of could start this larger movement to the downside. If price action provides multiple signals for a continuation to the higher levels then I will find opportunities to enter and capture the larger move, however for now there is only potential for a short term bull move.

The daily chart has shown price action has deviated away from the 50 EMA slightly suggesting that there may be a potential for a small pull back on the bull side. There seems to be a key daily support/resistance level around the 0.77600 level, which could be a key level for price action to react a reject against before proceeding to the upside. The next key level of interest on the daily time frame is the 0.78800 level, where price action has previously held as support and resistance . The stochastic oscillator is showing signs of price action being over sold, with the graph breaking below the 20 level.

As mentioned previously the RSI has formed a bullish divergence in the RSI . There is a significant deviation between price action and the 50 EMA indicating that the is potential for price to pull back up towards this moving average.

The hourly chart has shown that price action has formed a bearish channel at the lower end of what can be considered the corrective wave of the large bull trend. Once price action needs to break this before entering a position, for an early entry this may be used as a management point. key levels to look out for on the hourly chart are the 0.78300 level which could act as resistance and also the 0.78090 level.
Trade ist aktiv: i fell that price action will retest the 0.77600 level and form a doubel bottom on the hourly chart before breaking out of the short term bearish channel
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