Prices have now hit the TP1 of this trade. But I am NOT going to take any profit off this TP1 because this pair still has MORE room to drop! As I've said, I'm expecting it to retest the 70 cents level at least. However,I am expecting that there will be a retrace of this current drop at some point soon in a wave b. So to protect and bag some profits while letting my positions run more if prices do continue dropping, I'll use a trailing stop on 50% of my positions of 40 pips (30% of the current profits) but let the 50% of my positions run without stops for a full ride down to 70 cents should that happen.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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I like your trades, it looks detail and reasonable. Thank you for your analysis.
EverythingForex
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you're welcome!
AlexFindlay
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VERY INFORMATIVE
EverythingForex
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Thanks!
clockworkjacko
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Hey Mr EVerythingFX, why do you think it will hit 0.70? will it resolve upwards at any point?
after all janet yellen has bascially delayed the rate hikes which led to strong buyer bars around 0.713. will you take that into account?
EverythingForex
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Thanks for the questions. 69-70 cents is and has been a very strong psych level/structure level. It held recently to stop the downtrend. Don't misunderstand me when I say I am still very bearish on this pair. That is my OVERALL long term sentiment. It does not mean that I am expecting this pair to keep dropping. In fact, I do believe that should it get down to retest that level again and NOT break it, it will lead to a VERY STRONG bounce up.
If you have followed my posts, then you know that I do not take fundamentals into account as far as considering trades. I DO consider that fundamentals have some impact on prices BUT as all technical traders will tell you, all fundamentals are already priced into the price action. Having said that, I'll answer your question about the rate hike and its effect on this pair:
As for Mrs. Yellen's comments, its' affect on this pair is minimal. In fact, its' overall effect on all the USD crosses has been minimal. First, AUDUSD is a commodity-based currency pair. Commodities like gold and copper have more influence on what this pair does than the USD. And so does China's economy. This doesn't mean that her comments don't play any role. It does but its significance is many times overplayed. Look at the USD crosses after her announcement. Are they reacting as you would expect? With no rate hike, you would expect USDJPY to drop right? Well, you must consider also the opposing currency in each pair as well.
SaudAlAzab
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Good job so it took you 3 days for it to hit TP1 target?
EverythingForex
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Thanks but do you think 3 days is too long to wait for a trade? If you do, then your mindset is more of a scalper than a position trader. Nothing wrong with that. But I am a swing/position trader. I don't scalp. It's just my mindset. So for me, time in a trade is not a factor. I stay in a trade till I get my targets or PA tells me I'm wrong and I get out. Simple as that. Regardless of time.
When you develop your own trading plan, you must take into consideration your own mindset and trade accordingly or else you'll find yourself struggling against yourself and that's not a good thing. So my trading style is my own trading style and I never will say it is suited for everyone. There's not right or wrong here. Only what works best or you. GL!
SaudAlAzab
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True im kind of both , but i really like your trading strategy and thank you for all you do ...