ADA just completed its fifth Elliot Wave, and we are currently on our way to step C of an ABC wave formation. ADA future trend is dependent on how it performs over the next week.
If ADA reaches the blue box (step C) and breaks out upward, expect another Elliot Impulse up. I believe this is unlikely because of a head and shoulder formation from a TA perspective, and because fundamentally, ADA is overvalued. Unlike its price correlation brethren Ripple and Stellar Lumens, Cardano (ADA's platform) is still under development and Cardano's next major update will not be released until Q2 2018.
If ADA falls below the 5000 satoshis (the blue box area), expect a bear market down to 3200 satoshis as the First Support Level, with 2400 satoshis as the bottom of the bear market if ADA breaks below the first support level. I expect ADA to trade between 3200 satoshis and 4000 satoshis if it maintains above the First Support Level, and between 2400 satoshis and 3200 satoshis if it breaks below that support level.
ADA will re-enter a bull market if the Cardano team releases the major update, Shelley, on time in Q2 2018. If the team fails to do that, I predict ADA will, at best, stagnate in price, at worst, continue a bear market. ___ Any analysis in this article is my personal opinion and not professional advice (I'm an amateur/retail trader). This is my first analysis on TradingView. I hope you liked it and happy trading!
I graphed this the same way. Good spot, going to follow you. Keep in touch, hard to find graph analyst that actually not market structures on this platform
roaken
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@roaken, although, not to toot my own horn or anything, but I spotted it after wave five start to plung from the top :P
beneform
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@roaken, Haha, thanks! I'm still learning TA, but I try to be as objective as possible when doing TA. I'll follow you too, since you seem like someone who knows what they're doing :)
choresgalore44
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Not to be a Cardano fanboi or anything, but it has a history of staying stable after large run ups.. If it were to go full panda, then there would be blood.
beneform
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@choresgalore44, I would disagree with "staying stable after large run ups". You only have two cases of this happening in ADA's short history. The previous run-up was unable to consolidate and fell back to previous resistance (where it is now). The only thing maintaining ADA's price is BTC's price is stagnate/falling. If BTC were to enter a bull market, ADA will fall very hard very fast. You could argue that all alts will fall if BTC rises, but unlike other Top 5 projects, Cardano has no fundamentals backing it. It has no partnerships, no use case, no ICO, only a wallet that can send ADA back and forth. I think Q1 will be a bearish quarter for ADA for this reason. If Cardano releases Shelly on time in Q2, I would be bullish on ADA.